By Doug Page
In the event of a nuclear detonation, people in large metropolitan areas are better off sheltering-in-place than trying to evacuate immediately, says a recent research study.
Unless enough time is given for an orderly evacuation, which isn’t likely, clogged exit roads pose more danger of radiation exposure than if people were to remain in place at or close to the centers of large buildings or in basements.
“I recommend sheltering-in-place for 12–24 hours after an attack,” said Lawrence Wein, a professor in Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business. His mathematical modeling of what would happen after an improvised nuclear device attack in the Washington, D.C., area suggests that a sheltering-in-place strategy could save tens of thousands of lives.
Wein said the logistical challenge of a successful urban evacuation is beyond current response capabilities.
“Sheltering in basements saves approximately twice as many lives as being aboveground,” Wein said. The study recommends that governments encourage businesses and citizens to develop a basement shelter strategy, including the storage of food, water, blankets and other necessities at facilities and homes in or near large cities.
The Stanford analysis considered blast, thermal and radiation effects and used mathematical models to investigate the effects of various response strategies.
Although Wein admits he has more confidence in his sheltering recommendation than in his estimates of lives that would be lost, he argues that there could be almost 80,000 fatalities immediately following the detonation of a 10-kiloton improvised nuclear device on the Washington Mall at 10 a.m. on a weekday.
Of the estimated 360,000 survivors without access to a vehicle, Wein estimates 43,000 would die if they immediately tried to evacuate on foot. On the other hand, sheltering in a basement or close to the middle of a large building would save a third of them.
A 10-kiloton device can be hidden in a van-sized vehicle. The explosive force of a single kiloton of nuclear material is equivalent to the blast from 1,000 tons of TNT.
Wein said previous studies have shown that first responders are unlikely to be able to establish evacuation stations until 12–48 hours after an attack, that no significant federal response is likely for 24 hours, and that a full federal response is not likely to be achieved for 72 hours.
“Unlike a bioterror or chemical attack, it may not be possible for the government to provide timely advice to the populace after such an event,” Wein said.