WASHINGTON — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expects the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season to be busier than usual, predicting a 60% chance of above-normal activity between June 1 and Nov. 30. Forecasters project 13 to 19 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes and 3 to 5 may reach major status (Category 3 or stronger).
Driving the outlook are very warm Atlantic sea-surface temperatures, anticipated ENSO-neutral conditions and a potentially more active West African monsoon — factors that favor storm formation and intensification, NOAA said.
Federal officials emphasized that the forecast is a “call to action” for emergency managers and public-safety leaders along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”
NOAA noted upcoming improvements to its Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, which are expected to trim track- and intensity-forecast errors by another 5%, and the ability to issue tropical-cyclone advisories up to 72 hours before storm-force winds arrive. Additional Spanish-language products and enhanced inland warning graphics will debut this year.
While the seasonal outlook does not predict landfall locations, public-safety agencies are urged to review evacuation plans, update continuity-of-operations procedures and assess communications redundancy ahead of what could be the tenth consecutive above-average season.
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